петак, 19. септембар 2014.

week ahead 20.09.2014



The Week Ahead: Week of September 22nd, 2014
Updated -  Sep 19, 2014 1:30:00 PM By By Matt Weller, Kathleen Brooks, Fawad Razaqzada, and Neal Gilbert

 

Market Movers: Weekly Technical Outlook

Technical Developments to Watch:
  • EUR/USD at 13-month lows, next support is 1.2800
  • GBP/USD bearish biased below key resistance near 1.6400-50
  • USD/JPY has gone parabolic, but there is risk of a violent correction
  • AUD/NZD in play, 1.1030 will be the “line in the sand” this week
* Bias determined by the relationship between price and various EMAs. The following hierarchy determines bias (numbers represent how many EMAs the price closed the week above): 0 – Strongly Bearish, 1 – Slightly Bearish, 2 – Neutral, 3 – Slightly Bullish, 4 – Strongly Bullish.
** All data and comments in this report as of Friday’s European session close ** 

 EUR/USD
  • EUR/USD dipped to a new 13-month low on Wednesday
  • Both the MACD and Slow Stochastics are showing signs of turning higher
  • Bias remains bearish below 20-day EMA at 1.30 and previous support at 1.3100
After a quiet start to the week, EURUSD dipped to a new 13-month low after Wednesday’s optimistic interest rate forecasts from the Federal Reserve. The central bank ratcheted up its anticipated pace of interest rate hikes for next year, though the initial increase is still unlikely to happen until Q2 based on the inclusion of the “considerable time” pledge. On a technical basis, the pair dipped under the 1.2900 handle last week, but both the MACD and Slow Stochastics have started to turn modestly higher. Given the established downtrend, the bias remains to the downside heading into this week, but a move above the 1.30 level would start to shift the odds toward a near-term bounce.
Source: FOREX.com

GBP/USD
  • GBP/USD rallied on Scottish “No” vote to independence, but lost steam on Friday
  • Lagging MACD indicator has turned higher but…
  •  …Bearish candlestick pattern and trend line points to dip this week
GBPUSD rallied into the highly anticipated Scottish referendum last week as traders grew increasingly confident that the “NO” voters would prevail. Upon receiving the news that Scotland had rejected independence, though, GBPUSD reversed sharply off converging resistance from its bearish trend line, 20-day EMA, and 38.2% Fib retracement. While the candle is not yet complete as we go to press, the chart is currently showing a Dark Cloud Cover* formation, which shows a shift from buying to selling pressure and often marks a near-term top in the market. For this week, we favor more weakness off the technical resistance at the 1.6400 zone, though a break back above this level could open the door for a larger recovery toward 1.6600.
*A Dark Cloud Cover is formed when one candle opens near the top of the previous candle's range, but sellers step in and push rates down to close in the lower half of the previous candle's range. It suggests a potential trend reversal.
Source: FOREX.com

USD/JPY
  • USDJPY went parabolic last week, rocketing to six-year highs above 109.00
  • MACD strongly bullish, Slow Stochastics deeply overbought
  • Bulls need to see a clean break above 105.45 resistance before waving the all-clear flag
USDJPY rocketed higher on Wednesday after the Fed suggested it could raise rates faster than traders were anticipating next year. The pair, which typically sees a strong reaction to US and Japanese monetary policy decisions, rallied all the way to 109.50 in the wake of the release. As we saw last week, the MACD is showing strong bullish momentum by trending higher above its signal line and the “0” level, but the Slow Stochastics remain in oversold territory, raising the probability of a pullback this week. That said, parabolic moves have a tendency to run further and faster than many traders expect, but they are notoriously vulnerable to violent corrections so bullish traders are encouraged to tread carefully this week.
Source: FOREX.com

AUD/NZD
  • AUDNZD held near previous-resistance-turned-support at 1.1030 last week
  • MACD shows bearish momentum, but oversold Slow Stochastics hint at a bounce
  • The 1.1020-40 zone represents the bull-bear “line in the sand” this week
AUDNZD is our currency pair in play due to a number of high-impact economic reports out of Australia, New Zealand, and China this week (see “Data Highlights” below for more). From a technical perspective, the antipodean currency pair held around its key previous-resistance-turned-support level at 1.1030 last week, and that area will be a critical bull-bear “line in the sand” for this week. As for the secondary indicators, the MACD is showing bearish momentum in the pair, though the Slow Stochastics are in oversold territory, suggesting that we could see a bounce. If the 1.1030 floor gives way, a continuation down toward 1.0900 is likely, whereas a bounce from this level could quickly target 1.1150 or 1.1200 next week.
Source: FOREX.com

GBP Fails to React to the Scottish No Vote

After Scotland’s resounding “no” vote in the independence referendum, some in the market had expected a sharp rise to 1.66 or above. However, that has not been the case, and since the “no” vote was declared, sterling has been sliding. So what is going on and is there further pain to come? The pair has found support at 1.632; below here opens the way to 1.6162—last Tuesday’s low—and then 1.6003, the 50% retracement of the July 2013–July 2014 bull trade.
Life after the referendum
The three leaders of the main UK parties have pledged greater powers for Scotland, known as Devo Max. The UK’s political leaders threw in a lot of devolution measures after polls started to show the “yes” camp gaining ground in the two weeks before the Scottish vote.
Where does this leave the rest of the UK?
Now that the referendum is out of the way, the prospect of devolution is the next political hurdle to get over. The biggest impact of Devo Max could actually be felt in England, as Prime Minister Cameron said that enhanced powers for Scotland can’t be done without looking at the needs of the other regions, including England. Although the devil is the in the details, the legacy of the Scottish referendum could be the slow death of centralised power in Westminster. We don’t know what Devo Max will mean for Scotland or the rest of the UK at this time, but it is likely to include fiscal powers – the ability to raise taxes and control public spending – and it could also create a hierarchy of politicians – for example Scottish MPs may not be able to vote on English issues and vice versa. These are major changes to the UK constitution, so change could still be afoot. But for markets it means political uncertainty in the coming months and years, which could make UK-based assets a less attractive option.
What will Scotland do now?
With 1.6 million people voting “yes” for independence, vs. nearly 2 million people voting “no,”  if Westminster does not start Devo Max negotiations in a timely manner then the SNP (Scottish National Party, who led the Yes campaign) could call for a repeat referendum sooner than the 15-year wait they pledged to before the vote.
At this stage there is no outline for devolution in Scotland and the rest of the UK. Thus, the 55% of people who voted “no” in Scotland last week but were told that the status quo would not stay the same essentially do not know what they voted for.
The big issues for investors to digest right now include:
1. How the Scottish referendum vote could impact next year’s UK General Election. If the Tories manage to pull off Devo Max for Scotland and the wider UK, it could boost their popularity in the run up to next year’s election.
2. A boost for the Tory party could spark fears that they may win next year’s election, which could trigger a referendum on the UK’s EU membership in 2017.
The Scottish referendum may have unleashed a wave of democratic intention in the UK and potentially in Europe. If Scotland can hold a referendum on independence why not the Catalan region of Spain?  This political uncertainty could limit GBPUSD upside, and the high back in July above 1.71 could well prove to be the peak for this pair.
Source: FOREX.com and Bloomberg

Look Ahead: Equities

The FTSE started Friday around 0.7% higher after Scotland voted to stay in the UK. Unsurprisingly, shares in companies with direct exposure to Scotland jumped to the top of the leader board.  RBS, for example, was up 3.4% on the news and after the bank confirmed it would not be moving its registered head office to the south now that the Scottish independence had been rejected, while Lloyds Banking Group said it is “proud of its strong Scottish heritage and remains committed to having a significant presence in Scotland.”  The outcome of the Scottish vote has had a larger impact in some of the overseas markets, especially Spain, where the IBEX is up 1.2%. This is because the “no” vote is seen as reducing the probabilities of Catalonians demanding a Scotland-style breakaway.
However, by late afternoon on Friday, the FTSE had come off its best levels. Having chalked up decent gains on Thursday when investors had already started to price in a “no” outcome, this was not a major surprise. Indeed, the pound also saw a similar buy-the-rumour-sell-the-news type of a reaction.  But with the independence uncertainty over, money that had been withdrawn from UK equity funds may now start pouring back in which could help to push the FTSE higher over the coming days and weeks. According to the FT, outflows had surged to $1.02 billion in the week to Wednesday. The previous week had already seen outflows of $672 million.
Technical view
The FTSE has so far been unable to break through the 6900 hurdle as we had predicted in our special report last week. But with the global markets also rallying and a major source of uncertainty over the UK markets now lifted, this may be the time for the FTSE to finally break through the 6900 barrier and climb towards and beyond the all-time high of 6950 that was achieved in 1999. The first thing the bulls would like to see now is a daily close above 6900.  Once that is achieved, the 6950 mark would be the first logical target, for it also corresponds with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level of the most recent correction (i.e. from point C to D on the chart). The 161.8% extension of the same move meets the 127.2% of another, larger, correction (i.e. the AB downswing) at around the psychological area of 7000. The 161.8% extension of the latter meanwhile comes in at 7125.
On the other hand, if the FTSE continues to head lower from here then a couple of the important near-term support levels to watch are at 6855 and 6820, which were formerly resistance. But the key support area is further lower around 6760/70, where the 50-day SMA meets the prior lows and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the upswing from the August low (i.e. the BC rally). The 200-day SMA comes in at 6725.
Source: FOREX.com. Please note this product is not available to US clients.

Look Ahead: Commodities

The Fed decided to keep the “considerable time” pledge until the first rate hike in its statement on Wednesday. This boosted stocks, sending the Dow and S&P to fresh record highs. The dollar bulls were also satisfied with the so-called “dot plot” of Fed members’ forecasts for interest rates edging higher. As the dollar and stocks continued to strengthen, so too did the pressure on commodities priced in the US currency. And so as another week draws to a close, both gold and silver are once again falling.
The sell-off has forced the metals to break below some key technical support levels. As a result, fresh sell orders have been triggered which have thus exacerbated the sell-off.  In fact, silver has just broken below the 2013 low of $18.20 and at the time of this writing, it looks like more losses are on the way for the grey metal.
For silver, the next potential support is around $17.75/80, a level which corresponds with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the last major upswing. The 161.8% extension of that move comes in way down at $16.75. Worryingly for the bulls, the metal has also created a “death crossover” which is another bearish development. This crossover occurs when the 50-day moving average drops below the 200-day SMA.
The bulls will be hoping that the metal may bounce back off its lows and close the day above where it had opened or ideally at an even better level. If that were to happen, it would indicate that there was lack of supply below $18.20 and we would potentially have a false breakdown reversal pattern on the cards. As we go to press, the chances look slim for this scenario, but it is nonetheless a possibility. The RSI meanwhile is also at an extremely oversold level and this also point to a possible bounce. The near-term resistance levels to watch are at $18.20, $18.60, $18.90 and $19.30 – levels that were formerly support.
Source: FOREX.com
Meanwhile, gold has been coming under increased pressure too following the break of the key $1240 level and the subsequent rejection of the rally there. As a result, a move down to $1210/12, where a couple of Fibonacci extension levels converge, could be the next stop – potentially ahead of $1180/5 after that. However, a closing break above $1240 would invalidate this bearish outlook. 
Source: FOREX.com

Global Data Highlights

Monday, September 22, 2014
13:00 GMT          European Central Bank President Mario Draghi Testifies in Euro Parliament
The Scottish independence referendum results have shown us that despite the trumpeted shouts of “FREEDOM” from William Wallace wannabees Scottish citizens, by and large, would rather stick with the status quo and remain with the UK.  The spotlight could now shift toward more pressing matters in the EU, namely the fact that the ECB’s Targeted Long Term Refinancing Operations, or TLTROs, failed to lend out as much money as they were originally intending.  The low participation in the program could inevitably lead to questions about Quantitative Easing from the European Parliament, and judging from the market’s reaction after Draghi insinuated QE was close at hand at the last ECB meeting, sizable EUR moves may be in store, especially if he downplays the likelihood of QE at the next ECB meeting.
14:00 GMT          US Existing Home Sales (August)
US housing data this past week was less than stellar as Housing Starts and Building Permits each fell back below the 1M figure for the month after posting strong results the previous month.  Existing Home Sales have been enjoying a strong run of late though with three straight months of above-expectation results, and may need to do it once again to restore confidence in the sector.  Seasonally, September appears to be a strong month for this release as each of the last four Septembers have beat market consensus.  If this were to repeat the performance once again, the USD strength we have seen of late could continue.
Tuesday, September 23, 2014
1:45 GMT             Chinese HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (September)
Storm clouds have appeared on the horizon in China of late as the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) initiated a “stealth” QE program, meaning they started the program without signaling its intention beforehand.  The 500B Yuan program was aimed at China’s top 5 banks and is a peculiar action that seemed to come out of nowhere.  In response, the AUD rallied off the 0.9000 handle, but couldn’t hold as it dipped below the next day.  Is the PBoC trying to warn the market that bad news is around the corner for their economy?  If that is the case, the Flash Manufacturing PMI could help to definitively answer in the affirmative if it were to drop below the 50 level which would signal contraction in the sector; last month’s drop from 52.0 to 50.3 is not a confidence-building result.
8:00 GMT             Eurozone Markit Flash Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs (September)
Perhaps of greater import to the markets on these releases this day are the PMI figures out of France and Germany in particular over the results for the Eurozone as a whole.  The two largest economies in the EU have been suffering of late due to a variety of reasons including low inflation, dwindling confidence, and economically damaging sanctions against Russia.  The promise of QE from the ECB and the institution of TLTROs aren’t likely going to have much impact yet as expectations for PMI figures across the board are either below 50 or dangerously close to the demarcation line.  Watch for a fall below that figure and even more reasons to feel bearish about the EUR.
8:30 GMT             UK BBA Mortgage Approvals (August)
The London housing market has been getting a little hot over the last few months, and the Bank of England may give a sigh of relief if this reading were to pull back slightly.  However, many UK data points have been trending toward the positive lately and the BoE is still positioned to be one of the first major central banks to raise rates.  Now that the Scottish vote is in the rearview mirror, investors may pay more attention to the actual economic results out of the UK instead of selling the currency based on abject fear of a fractured UK.  The relief rally may be taking shape, particularly if this result is viewed positively.
8:30 GMT             UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (August)
This release swings wildly from positive to negative on a monthly basis, so the expectations of 10.3B after last month’s -1.1B isn’t something completely out of the ordinary.  Regardless of expectations, a positive figure means that more money was borrowed and represents a deficit in spending which is generally a negative for the economy.  Many public funds were likely spent on advertising on the run up to the Scottish independence vote, so a high number here may not be too much of a surprise.  If it were to fall below expectations, which could be a positive indication and help boost the recovery of the GBP.
12:30 GMT          Canadian Retail Sales (July)
Canadian Wholesale Sales of the same month were abysmal as they decline 0.3% on expectations of a 0.6% gain.  While Wholesale and Retail Sales don’t always correlate exactly, the last time Wholesale Sales were negative, Retail Sales matched it with a negative of its own. That said, anticipation for this result may be trending more toward the negative heading in to the reveal and could weigh on the CAD ahead of time.
22:45 GMT          New Zealand Trade Balance (August)
New Zealand has been trending the wrong way in this department over the previous four months as each result has been less than the month leading in to it.  Consensus is expecting that trend to continue with a deficit of 1.125B after last month’s deficit of 692M.  As a reference, the last time NZ Trade Balance was in deficit before last month was October 2013, and for a nation that is highly dependent upon its exports, surplus is valued.  In addition, general elections will be taking place in the Kiwi nation this weekend which could shake up the currency; particularly if internet tycoon, Kim Dotcom’s, party has any say.  If uncertainty reigns in the region after this weekend, the Trade Balance may not help matters.
Wednesday, September 24, 2014
8:00 GMT             German IFO Business Climate, Current Assessment, and Expectations (September)
Considering the intimate involvement Germany has had in the Russia/Ukraine conflict with negotiations and sanctions being announced frequently, it wouldn’t take much of a leap in logic to assume German businesses and citizens are growing evermore concerned.  The Business Climate aspect of this report in particular has declined four straight months, missing expectations each time, and doesn’t appear to be set for a rebound.  Consensus is expecting another fall to 105.9 from 106.3, but the trend has been steeper than that since the decline began which may indicate consensus may not be pessimistic enough in their assessment.
14:00 GMT          US New Home Sales (August)
While Existing Home Sales put up a strong showing last month, New Home Sales failed to deliver as it improved upon the previous month’s dismal read, but still missed consensus by 14K.  If the Existing measure misses early in the week, this report will be viewed as a supplement and if it also fails to live up to the hype, doubts about the strength of the US recovery may begin to creep in to the social consciousness.  If that were to occur, all of the strength that the USD has enjoyed over the last few weeks could be reversed as investors seek the safety of other investments.
Thursday, September 25, 2014
12:30 GMT          US Durable Goods Orders (August)
Be prepared for an abnormally negative result here as last month’s 22.6% increase was ridiculously high for even this notoriously difficult-to-predict economic indicator.  Consensus is expecting a -17.7% read, but that really wouldn’t be too terrible after last month’s surge.  If it were to surprise by keeping the negative figure in the single digits or even *gasp* rising once again, the doom and gloom of our previous paragraph may be full of hot air.  Regardless, this figure is one of the most volatile economic releases there is and has been historically difficult for the consensus to nail down, so a surprise may be in store on either side of expectations.
Friday, September 26, 2014
No major events
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недеља, 30. март 2014.

Предраг Поповић:

Хоће ли Александар Вучић побећи из земље или ће завршити у земљи?
  Познати српски новинар и публициста Предраг Поповић, свакако најбољи овдашњи познавалац Александра Вучића и његове социопатске личности, у ексклузивном тексту за магазин Таблоид, описује самозваног вођу као слабог, бескарактерног човека и опасног лудака од кога не треба ништа добро очекивати.
Тиранин од папира
Време мења људе. Не и Александра Вучића. Откад сам га упознао, пре 20 година, он је прошао кроз најразличитије изазове, у политици и у приватном животу имао је и успоне и падове, прогонио је и био прогоњен, претрпео је све и свашта, али није се променио. Он је метастазирао. Трансформисао се идеолошки и физички. Кад сам га први пут видео био је потрчко у секретаријату Српске радикалне странке, уста су му била пуна жестоких великосрпских парола и заклетви у верност идолу Војиславу Шешељу. Са своја два метра висине имао је неких 80 килограма, уденутих у јефтине „Јумко“ кошуље и позајмљене прешироке сакое. С Новог Београда, из стана у коме је живео с родитељима и братом, до седишта странке путовао је аутобусом. Девојку Тијану, уместо у проводе по сплавовима, доводио је у своју момачку собу, да гледају телевизију и слушају плоче.
Данас, до крајности измењених политичких ставова, у најскупљим оделима носи својих 130 кг, сваки дан му на руци блиста други сат, некад „Френк Милер“ од 80.000 евра а некад дупло јефтинији „Картије“. Не помиње све станове чији је власник, али поносан је на замак у Јајинцима у коме има вински подрум вредан пола милиона евра. Давно је заборавио на хорор-вожње ГСБ-ом, на радикалски „Југо“, који му је Шешељ дао на располагање, па и на „Шкоду Октавију“ – поклон тајкуна Миодрага Костића.
Иако се статусно, финансијски и габаритно променио, у суштини Вучић је остао исти – подао, покварен, похлепан, спреман да свакоме нанесе максимално зло само да би себи обезбедио макар минималну корист…
Мењао је идеолошка уверења, странке, савезнике, непријатеље, кумове, жене…Све, само карактер не. Сви његови сарадници, без обзира да ли су му надређени или подређени, увек су знали с ким имају посла.
Ноћ пред Шешељев одлазак у Хаг, 23. фебруара 2003, у земунском седишту СРС-а одржана је последња, испраћајна вечера. Групи од двадесетак највиших и најзначајнијих функционера Шешељ је три сата делио конкретна и детаљна упутства шта и како да раде не би ли сачували јединство странке, упозоравајући их на сплетке, уцене и подмићивања којима ће ДОС и страни агенти покушати да их врбују. Међутим, његов заменик Томислав Николић тачно је претпоставио од кога прети највећа опасност, зато је шефу поставио само једно питање: „Војиславе, како да изађем на крај с Вучићем кад полуди, а сви знамо да ће се то десити?“
- Уради исто што бих и ја, опали му шамар и отерај га – рекао је Шешељ.
Вучић их је слушао без речи, спуштене главе. Није га изненадило што му кумови и шефови не верују, знао је да су у праву. Уосталом, авион са Шешељем још није ни узлетео са сурчинског аеродрома, а Вучић је почео да креира сплетке против њих двојице. Иако се јавно заклињао у верност „шефу, куму и пријатељу“ Шешељу, тајно је подривао његов ауторитет. Једном приликом ме позвао на вечеру код радикалског посланика Амџата Мигатија. Према Јадранки Шешељ, коју смо затекли тамо, понашао се изузетно сервилно, задивљен њеном храброшћу, достојанством и смислом за хумор. Док смо се враћали из Вишњице, променио је причу: „…Јадранка је необразована, искомплексирана и агресивна, глуми страначку газдарицу, а и сама, сирота, зна да ће је Шешељ шутнути чим изађе из затвора“. Касније сам из депеша америчких амбасадора, које је објавио Викиликс, сазнао да је исте ставове о Јадранки износио и пред страним дипломатама и новинарима.
Против Томислава Николића је сплеткарио још упорније и темељитије. Тек што сам дошао у „Правду“, Вучић ме замолио да пошаљем фоторепортера да на одређеној адреси сними неки „Ауди“ и кућу, али да то не објављујем док он, наводно, не провери све податке о власнику. Фотографије никада нису објављене у „Правди“. За то нису ни биле намењене. Вучић их је однео у Хаг, да покаже Шешељу како изгледају нова лимузина и викендица Томислава Николића.
Неколико месеци касније поновио је процедуру с прикупљањем доказа о стану који је Томин син Бранислав, како је Вучић тврдио, купио за 850.000 евра. Из његове фабрике интрига потекле су афере о Николићевој куповини стана у „паметној згради“ код амбасаде Кине, коју је пласирао преко „Преса“, као и о томе да је Николић још 1997, као директор Пословног простора општине Земун, у бесцење продао једну зграду у центру Сурчина Новаку Бухи, рођеном брату тадашњег шефа сурчинског клана, што је пласирао у „Куриру“.
На исти начин, офирајући их код утамниченог вође, Вучић је у Хаг слао доказе којима је хтео да компромитује Гордану Поп Лазић, Драгана Тодоровића и, нарочито, Милорада Мирчића. Успео је да завади кумове Шешеља и Николића да би, на крају, прво једном, а затим и другом отео странку.
Први пуч у СРС извршио је још у лето 2004. године, кад је у свом стану у „Yу бизнис центру“ оформио личну фалангу, која је имала већи утицај на одлуке странке него вођа радикала и Централна отаџбинска управа. За најближе сараднике изабрао је Небојшу Стефановића, Бранислава Пространа, придошлицу из Карићевог Покрета „Снага Србије“, кума и естрадног менаџера Зорана Башановића и Југослава Петковића, курира тајкуна Ђорђија Ницовића. Највећи утицај на Вучића имао је и још има Никола Петровић.
У пролеће 2006. године Вучић ми је понудио да направимо дневне новине. Он би био незванични газда, ја главни уредник, а инвеститор „краљ марципана“ Небојша Мишић, власник фирме „Арекс“. За Мишића сам знао само да је саучесник у корупционашким аферама „Јањушевић-Колесар“, а никада нисам открио каква мука га је довела у Вучићево друштво, у коме сам тада затекао и Николу Петровића.
Анимозитет, обостран, плануо је на први поглед. Како и не би. Проћелав, кварцован, с отромбољеном доњом усном, с индијанском огрлицом око врата, у фирмираном оделу и са скупим томпусом у руци, понашао се баш у складу с дизајном – агресивно, вулгарно и надмено. Одмах сам приметио да има специјалан статус. Исти Вучић, који је, без имало толеранције, неопрезним сарадницима, ако би се усудили да читају смс-поруке док он прича, узимао телефон из руке и бацао кроз прозор, или би несрећног Стефановића гађао торбицом-педерушом, као и маторог Ђорђа Минкова папирима, исти тај Вучић би с осмехом прихватао Петровићеве провокативне доскочице.
Вучић, као ни сви његови сарадници, никада нису хтели или знали да ми одговоре ко је Никола Петровић и чиме се бави. На помен његовог имена само би ућутали, слегли раменима и уплашено мењали тему. Углавном, причало се да је он син неког Пироћанца, који је у Француској успео да направи велику фирму за производњу и трговину рибом, воћем и поврћем. Стари Брана Црнчевић, кад је ушао у неки сукоб с Петровићем, врло уверљиво је тврдио да Пироћанац Јуниор у Србији ради с парама Станка Суботића Цанета.
Знајући за Вучићеве оптужбе на рачун Суботића – да је шверцер дувана, нарко-дилер и један од вођа највећег европског мафијашког клана – нисам поверовао у те приче. Ипак, поред Црнчевићевих удбашких сазнања, постојале су и конкретније индиције. На Петровићев предлог Вучић је дистрибуцију „Правде“ уступио „Футури плус“, фирми Станка Суботића. О расподели тиража, наплати и исплати бринуо се лично Ненад Милановић, један од директора „Футуре“, познатији као брат Милана Милановића Мргуда, најближег Суботићевог сарадника и другооптуженог за шверц дувана. По тој линији, у „Правду“ је стигао и Душко Вуксановић, дан након што је Суботић угасио свој дневни лист „Борба“, у којој је Вуксановић био директор. Уз Петровићеву подршку, Вучић је на име Ане Стефановић, супруге Небојше Стефановића, с Вуксановићем основао заједничко предузеће „Правда Пласман“.
Никола Петровић је увео Александра Вучића у сиву политичку и пословну зону, повезао са Станком Суботићем и претворио у боса владајућег картела. Још док је СНС била у опозицији, Петровић је статус владара из сенке користио за добијање огромних кредита, развој своје фирме за производњу и трговину електричном енергијом, а по доласку на власт постављен је, без обзира на очигледан сукоб интереса, на место директора Електромреже Србије.
Иако је од самог уласка у политику почео да гомила богатство, Вучић се тек под Петровићевим утицајем одрекао старог аскетског имиџа. Скупа кола, одећа и обућа, сатови, вино, ексклузивне туристичке дестинације…Свесни моћи коју им новац даје, Вучић и Петровић опуштено уживају у свему што воле млади.
У суботу, 15. марта, ноћ пре избора, Петровић је у једном познатом ресторану организовао прославу свог рођендана. Како и приличи најзначајнијем господаревом консиљереу, на поклоњење су му дошли сви поданици из државног врха. За одличну атмосферу били су задужени распевани Ивица Дачић, Цеца Ражнатовић и актуелни мултимедијални могул Горан Веселиновић. Нова Вучићева супруга, Тамара Ђукановић, наводно није била присутна, одржава трудноћу.
Следеће ноћи, кад је сазнао да је добио већинско поверење лаковерних бирача, Александар Вучић није могао да сакрије сузе од среће. Нормалнији део Србије такође је плакао, од туге и страха. Брига је оправдана. Ко не верује, нека се сети Славка Ћурувије. Незадовољан писањем „Дневног телеграфа“, Вучић је хајку на Ћурувију покренуо још 1997. године, док је био у опозицији. У властитој продукцији штампао је порно-памфлет којим је хтео да компромитује неподобног новинара.
Касније, доласком на власт, злоупотребљавајући полицију и правосуђе, водио је монструозну кампању која је окончана са 17 метака у леђа власника „Дневног телеграфа“. После се новинарима те редакције ругао пошалицом: „…Где вам је Ћурувија? Јел’ побегао из земље или је у земљи?“
Ко је то заборавио, само нека буде стрпљив, Вучић ће га уверити да је параноја, коју сада шири преко својих јуришних одреда – Пинка, „Курира“ и „Информера“ – заснована на реалној опасности од понављања насиља. Ако је спреман да овакву тортуру спроводи сад кад је најјачи, лако може да се наслути шта ће радити кад осети да му се власт љуља. Тада ће Србија осетити шта значи тиранија господара Вучића и његових фалангиста. Многи грађани који више верују својим очима него његовим лажима ће, што би рекао Вучић, побећи из земље или ће завршити у земљи.
извор: ТАБЛОИД

четвртак, 16. јануар 2014.

Emotions at work in finance

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Emotions at work in finance


Workers in the sector should recognise how feelings can influence their decisions
Trader©Getty
When feelings run high: failure to manage emotions can lead to financial loss, paralysis and burnout
Rational and objective: that is how business people like to see themselves, believing there is no room for emotion in their decision making. Yet whenever human beings find themselves in the grip of intense feelings, such as greed or fear, it is these, rather than rational thoughts, that influence the choices they make.
Whatever we think, emotions always play a part in our decisions. Understanding this can help businesspeople make better choices and achieve better results – particularly in the uncertain world of financial markets.

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IN MANAGEMENT

Feelings can be a useful guide to making decisions. Optimism, for ex­ample, is necessary, but too much can mean crucial realities are ignored. Desire to succeed can be so powerful as to repress the risks involved. Fear is appropriate when caution is called for, and excitement is necessary to motivate staff and move business on.
It is how such feelings are managed that ultimately determines if one is hijacked by them or uses them as a guide. In the former case, the result may be financial loss, paralysis or burnout, whereas the latter can help in making more reasoned choices.
For one middle-aged man with more than 25 years’ experience in trading for an international bank, it was an overwhelming desire to be seen as the “top guy” and to gain the acknowledgment of being right, rather than the financial rewards, that drove his decisions on the trading floor. This resulted in his failing to think through certain crucial managementand trading decisions, which ultimately led to a substantial financial loss.
He explains: “I wanted to take the existing revenue stream and push the platform to the next level. I upped the risk profile and got it massively wrong. I blinded myself because I was eager – it’s a huge ego boost when you’re in that position that people have to come to you.
“It’s the recognition – it has nothing to do with the money. I wanted to show management that I was made of something,” he says.
His childhood background reveals an emotionally neglectful home life, where he suffered repeatedly from a sense of disappointment from his parents. Although outwardly he became successful, first academically and then financially, he was never able to rid himself of the feelings of worthlessness and consequently was “driven, obsessed with the need for constant affirmation”.
It was the “hit” of a good trade that offered him temporary relief from feelings of self-loathing. The highs, however, were frequently followed by crashes, and the cycle left him more depressed and obsessed with “winning” at work.
Marios Pierides, a consultant psych­iatrist in London, has extensive experience of working with traders who have sought treatment because they were unable to manage the extreme emotional volatility associated with their work. He says: “The ethos of the City is to make as much money as you can and get out – ‘I’ll hold my breath for five years and then come out the other end with my Porsche and my penthouse’. But many people don’t come out with this dream at all. It is like swimming under water while holding your breath in a sea of sharks.”
The most common problem traders bring to him is drug and alcohol abuse, where they use substances either to energise themselves after burnout or to wind down from a high. “It’s not just cocaine and cannabis, but prescription and over-the-counter drugs as well. When the crash happens, the drugs take it away. Relationships suffer, kids suffer, families are ruined. Ultimately, it shortens working lives,” Dr Pierides says.
Also common are depression and anxiety, which Dr Pierides says can impair capacity to make decisions.
He says: “You either think too slowly so that you don’t process information as quickly as you should; [or] the other option is that you just make bad decisions with the obvious consequences.”
He has observed that female traders seem more emotionally mature and have fewer issues than their male counterparts. Typically, women are more expressive, while men tend to keep their thoughts and feelings to themselves. He adds: “Women are much more collaborative in their ap­proach­es, while men are more competitive.”
Two women who claim to exemplify this view are Fatima Ghellab and Manuela Robson, founders of Fat Man FX, a small foreign exchange trading firm in London.Ms Ghellab says: “We encourage ourselves to think out loud and voice our emotions – once it’s out there, it’s not a dangerous suppressed emotion any more. It diffuses the intensity of feeling and the partner takes over if necessary.”
Tales that fund managers tell themselves about decisions
It is not only traders who must deal with the strong emotions associated with investing. Fund managers also make decisions in a climate of uncertainty. Managing their anxiety becomes crucial if they are to muster the conviction necessary to invest.
David Tuckett, a psychoanalyst and professor at University College London, is the author of Minding the Markets: an Emotional Finance View of Financial Instability. He draws on psychoanalytic theory to explain how, under uncertain financial conditions, fund managers are required to outperform each other despite the fact that it is impossible for everyone to beat their peers.
According to Prof Tuckett, all forms of financial management stimulate emotions. There is excitement about the prospect of gain, and anxiety about potential loss. His research, involving interviews with more than 50 fund managers in three continents, reveals that in order to cope with these anxieties, they must create convincing narratives. It is by ignoring information, often unconsciously, that their conviction to act is fuelled; in fact, the reality is clearly uncertain and full of financial ambiguities. He says: “The great thing about a story is that it can smoothly get rid of information. Stories create a believable picture of the imagined future by providing grounds for being attracted to the option for some gain, while repelling any potential doubts about loss.”
He describes how, when fund managers make a selection for their portfolio, they enter into a dependent relationship with their investment, not unlike a love affair.
“Fundamentally one has to enter into an emotional relationship with one’s stocks if one is going to accept the risk to invest. It’s a fantasy, it’s an idea of something which is more than realistically possible.
“A good analogy would be the way we idealise our romantic partner, which enables us to make the kind of commitment necessary to engage and marry. Of course, you start with the great love and then gradually it becomes more realistic.”
The writer is a psychotherapist and this article is based partly on her clinical experience
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среда, 15. јануар 2014.

Make (Big) Money in Any Market

So what if the market drops a little from time to time? That's inevitable, and in the long term, healthy.
The fact remains we're in a bull market. We have been since March 2009.
But now, especially with some early 2014 swings, investors may be wondering.
How long does this bull have to run and what should we do next?
I don't have a crystal ball... but I do have 30 years' experience - starting in 1982 on the floor of the Chicago Board Options Exchange, then running a big bank's hedge trading, then a Wall Street trading desk, and finally managing my own hedge funds.
I know many investors stick to a buy-and-hold strategy or more actively trade. There's a place for both to maximize this market.
But before you can start making money in the market, you need to know what's really happening...

This Bull Market Has Just Begun

You have to plan how you're going to invest based on where you see the market going and how it's going to get there. It's all about the most important underlying aspect of the market, any market; it's about riding the major trend.
This market's major trend is up. And, as we've said, it's going to continue.
We didn't just get here magically; we followed a certain path, and it's not veering soon. In the U.S. we're close to market highs across all the major benchmarks, up from those 2009 lows.
The long rally wasn't so much a blazing bull market as it was a major bounce off the devastating selloff in financial assets that spawned the Great Recession.
Remarkably, after all is said and done we're only about 15% higher than the old 2007 market highs. In other words, the new bull market has just begun. Here's why:
Stocks moved higher foremost because they were grossly oversold...
Low interest rates allowed corporations to reengineer their balance sheets...
And huge layoffs, inventory liquidations, and deleveraging all "streamlined" companies.
Then, as emerging markets recovered faster than developed economies, global trade increased diversification of revenue streams. Margins began to increase, which buoyed bottom-line profitability, and as the world crawled out of its stupor, top-line revenue growth expanded.
Ultimately multiple expansions took equities back to their 2007 highs, as investors reacquired their faith in capital markets, earnings, and growth prospects. The second half of 2013 was a momentum-driven boost that set the stage for the new bull market.
That's our starting point. There's something else at play here, something underlying, something very big. As I alluded to in my last piece, while the demand for equities has been strong, there are far fewer companies and shares to invest in here in the U.S. The demand equation is itself extremely bullish.
The U.S. economy is healing, too slowly for sure, but it isn't contracting. Globally, other developed economies and emerging markets are a mixed bag, but we're all in this together and we'll eventually all get through the "deleveraging" and "corrective" phases necessary for global growth to firm up and expand.
If U.S. economic growth picks up, and over the next four to eight quarters global growth picks up, we're only in the first leg of a generational bull market. I believe equities could double from here and potentially go a lot higher after doubling.
Of course that doesn't mean there aren't risks on the horizon. There are plenty of risks. But to make money you have to have a starting place from which to plan your moves, and mine is that we're going higher, eventually a lot higher, that's the major trend.
There are two ways to play the rising market from here.

These Shares Are the Key

Whether you're a long-term holder, the old buy-and-hold set, or a more active trader, it makes sense to start with the same core portfolio.
A base of six to eight stocks is a good start. You can be diversified and sleep at night with the right mix of these core positions.
Own an oil and gas major, one that pays a big dividend; maybe BP plc (ADR) (NYSE: BP) works for you. This position plays on energy consumption in the face of growing demand as the global economy heals and expands.
Own a diversified industrial conglomerate that pays a good dividend; maybe General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) is a good start. This position plays on the industrial base of machinery, goods, and services that are all necessary for an increasingly industrialized world.
Own a couple of technology stalwarts - not high-fliers, but tech giants that have been around and are part of the fabric of the economy, the global economy. They should generate tons of cash, pay good dividends, and still can come out of the box with breakthrough products and services. Microsoft Corporation (Nasdaq: MSFT) and Apple Inc.(Nasdaq: AAPL) are cornerstones.
Own a giant, global player in consumer goods that has a diversified array of household brand-name products that are sold all over the world and that pays a fat dividend. Unilever N.V. (ADR) (NYSE: UN) is one.
Own a diversified company with a big presence in agricultural products and life sciences that pays a healthy dividend. E. I. DuPont de Nemours And Co. (NYSE: DD) comes to mind.
That's a core group of stocks that covers all the major bases. The underlying theme: All are giants, aren't going anywhere, and pay excellent dividends.
For buy-and-hold types and trader types, these core positions should be added to on market pullbacks. Not only will you be lowering your average cost, you'll be increasing your annual dividend yield.
Another reason I like big stocks like these as core portfolio positions is they will spinoff and divest themselves from time to time of divisions and downstream operations, which they package as a new stock and give to you as a kind of gift, which adds additional diversification at no cost to you.
There's more to positioning yourself if you're a buy-and-hold type. With every bull market there are going to be runaway winners, which you'll want to seek out and include in your portfolio. A lot of these will be pharmaceutical and technology stocks, companies that are changing the way we live and how long we live. I also like food and farm stocks for buy-and-hold investors. All of these will soar in the generational bull market we're in.

This Is Classic Carl Icahn

If you're a market timer or trader type, you're speaking my language. I like my core portfolio to be the base of my trading. A good core portfolio supplies income and offers stability and discipline. My trading nature appreciates big pullbacks so I can add to my core positions.
But, as a timer and trader, I still enter most positions from the long side in a bull market. The trend is always your friend. It's here, taking a ride on potential blockbusters that's exciting and very, very rewarding. The soon-to-be exploding second leg of this generational bull market is going to make smart timers and traders very, very rich.
And since timers and traders expect ups and downs, not only do we not fear downdrafts, we relish them.
This bull market will have its selloffs, and there will probably be a few that will hurt. But being in positions that benefit from falling markets, which always fall quickly, can be hugely rewarding. It's easy now to position yourself for a selloff in any industry, any market, any asset class, and almost any country, thanks to ETFs.
If you're inclined to play the timing and trading game (the biggest, most successful bank trading desks and most of the biggest and most successful hedge funds are all traders and not buy-and-hold types) and aren't an expert in that game, look for smart investor/traders like Carl Icahn, David Tepper, or George Soros to follow.
Or, check out any of the newsletter services or trader blogs run by folks you've heard of and trust, and see if following along opens new vistas and profit opportunities for you. I have no doubt it will.